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  • πŸ“‹ChartSchool
  • Table of Contents
    • Overview
      • Why Analyze Securities?
      • Technical Analysis
      • Fundamental Analysis
      • Random Walk vs. Non-Random Walk
      • Asset Allocation and Diversification
      • John Murphy's 10 Laws of Technical Trading
      • John Murphy's "Charting Made Easy" eBook
      • Technical Analysis 101
        • TA 101 – Part 1
        • TA 101 – Part 2
        • TA 101 – Part 3
        • TA 101 – Part 4
        • TA 101 – Part 5
        • TA 101 – Part 6
        • TA 101 – Part 7
        • TA 101 – Part 8
        • TA 101 – Part 9
        • TA 101 – Part 10
        • TA 101 – Part 11
        • TA 101 – Part 12
        • TA 101 – Part 13
        • TA 101 – Part 14
        • TA 101 – Part 15
        • TA 101 – Part 16
        • TA 101 – Part 17
      • Irrational Exuberance
      • Cognitive Biases
      • Arthur Hill on Goals, Style and Strategy
      • Arthur Hill on Moving Average Crossovers
      • Multicollinearity
      • "The Trader's Journal" by Gatis Roze
        • Stage 1: Money Management
        • Stage 2: Business of Investing
        • Stage 3: The Investor Self
        • Stage 4: Market Analysis
        • Stage 5: Routines
        • Stage 6: Stalking Your Trade
        • Stage 7: Buying
        • Stage 8: Monitoring Your Investments
        • Stage 9: Selling
        • Stage 10: Re-Examine, Refine, Re-Enhance
        • Additional Reading
      • Bob Farrell's 10 Rules
      • Richard Rhodes' Trading Rules
      • Donchian Trading Guidelines
      • Why and How To Use Correlation
    • Chart Analysis
      • What Are Charts?
      • Support & Resistance
      • Trend Lines
      • Gaps and Gap Analysis
      • Introduction to Chart Patterns
      • Chart Patterns
        • Broadening Top or Megaphone Top
        • Double Top Reversal
        • Double Bottom Reversal
        • Head and Shoulders Top
        • Head and Shoulders Bottom
        • Falling Wedge
        • Rising Wedge
        • Rounding Bottom
        • Triple Top Reversal
        • Triple Bottom Reversal
        • Bump and Run Reversal
        • Flag, Pennant
        • Symmetrical Triangle
        • Ascending Triangle
        • Descending Triangle
        • Rectangle
        • Price Channel
        • Measured Moveβ€”Bullish
        • Measured Moveβ€”Bearish
        • Cup With Handle
      • Chart Types
        • Arms CandleVolume
        • CandleVolume
        • Elder Impulse System
        • EquiVolume
        • Heikin-Ashi Candlesticks
        • Kagi Charts
        • Renko Charts
        • Three Line Break Charts
        • MarketCarpets
        • Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG Charts)
        • Seasonality Charts
        • Yield Curve
      • Candlestick Charts
        • Introduction to Candlesticks
        • Candlesticks and Traditional Chart Analysis
        • Candlesticks and Support
        • Candlesticks and Resistance
        • Candlestick Bullish Reversal Patterns
        • Candlestick Bearish Reversal Patterns
        • Candlestick Pattern Dictionary
      • Point and Figure Charts
        • Point and Figure Basics
          • Introduction to Point & Figure Charts
          • Point & Figure Scaling and Timeframes
          • P&F Trend Lines
        • Classic Patterns
          • P&F Bullish Breakouts
          • P&F Bearish Breakdowns
          • P&F Signal Reversed
          • P&F Catapults
          • P&F Triangles
          • P&F Bull & Bear Traps
        • P&F Price Objectives
          • P&F Price Objectives: Breakout and Reversal Method
          • P&F Price Objectives: Horizontal Counts
          • P&F Price Objectives: Vertical Counts
        • Point & Figure Indicators
        • P&F Scans and Alerts
          • P&F Pattern Alerts
      • Chart Annotation Tools
        • Andrews' Pitchfork
        • Stock Market Cycles
        • Fibonacci Retracements
        • Fibonacci Arcs
        • Fibonacci Fans
        • Fibonacci Time Zones
        • Quadrant Lines
        • Raff Regression Channel
        • Speed Resistance Lines
    • Technical Indicators & Overlays
      • Introduction to Technical Indicators and Oscillators
      • Technical Indicators
        • Accumulation/Distribution Line
        • Alligator Indicator
        • Aroon
        • Aroon Oscillator
        • ATR Bands
        • ATR Trailing Stops
        • Average Directional Index (ADX)
        • Average True Range (ATR) and Average True Range Percent (ATRP)
        • Balance of Power (BOP)
        • Bollinger BandWidth
        • %B Indicator
        • Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)
        • Chaikin Oscillator
        • Chande Trend Meter (CTM)
        • CMB Composite Index
        • Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
        • ConnorsRSI
        • Coppock Curve
        • Correlation Coefficient
        • DecisionPoint Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)
        • Detrended Price Oscillator (DPO)
        • Distance From Highs
        • Distance From Lows
        • Distance To Highs
        • Distance To Lows
        • Distance From Moving Average
        • Ease of Movement (EMV)
        • Force Index
        • Gopalakrishnan Range Index
        • High Low Bands
        • High Minus Low
        • Highest High Value
        • Linear Regression R2
        • Lowest Low Value
        • Mass Index
        • MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) Oscillator
        • MACD-Histogram
        • MACD-V
        • MACD-V Histogram
        • Median Price
        • Money Flow Index (MFI)
        • Negative Volume Index (NVI)
        • On Balance Volume (OBV)
        • Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO)
        • Percentage Volume Oscillator (PVO)
        • Performance Spread
        • Price Relative/Relative Strength
        • Pring's Know Sure Thing (KST)
        • Pring's Special K
        • Rate of Change (ROC)
        • Relative Strength Index (RSI)
        • Relative Volume (RVOL)
        • RRG Relative Strength
        • StockCharts Technical Rank
        • Slope
        • Standard Deviation (Volatility)
        • Stochastic Oscillator (Fast, Slow, and Full)
        • StochRSI
        • Traffic Light
        • TRIX
        • True Range
        • True Strength Index
        • TTM Squeeze
        • Typical Price
        • Ulcer Index
        • Ultimate Oscillator
        • Vortex Indicator
        • Weighted Close
        • Williams %R
      • Technical Overlays
        • Anchored VWAP
        • Bollinger Bands
        • Chandelier Exit
        • Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA)
        • Hull Moving Average (HMA)
        • Ichimoku Cloud
        • Kaufman's Adaptive Moving Average (KAMA)
        • Keltner Channels
        • Linear Regression Forecast
        • Linear Regression Intercept
        • Moving Averagesβ€”Simple and Exponential
        • Moving Average Ribbon
        • Moving Average Envelopes
        • Parabolic SAR
        • Pivot Points
        • Price Channels
        • Triple Exponential Moving Average (TEMA)
        • Volume-by-Price
        • Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
        • ZigZag
    • Market Indicators
      • Introduction to Market Indicators
        • Market Indicator Dictionary
      • Advance-Decline Line
      • Advance-Decline Percent
      • Advance-Decline Volume Line
      • Advance-Decline Volume Percent
      • Arms Index (TRIN)
      • Bullish Percent Index (BPI)
      • DecisionPoint Intermediate-Term Breadth Momentum Oscillator (ITBM)
      • DecisionPoint Intermediate-Term Volume Momentum Oscillator (ITVM)
      • DecisionPoint Swenlin Trading Oscillator (STO)
      • High-Low Index
      • High-Low Percent
      • McClellan Oscillator
      • McClellan Summation Index
      • Net New 52-Week Highs
      • Percent Above Moving Average
      • Pring's Bottom Fisher
      • Pring's Diffusion Indicators
      • Pring's Inflation and Deflation Indexes
      • Pring's Net New High Indicators
      • Put/Call Ratio
      • Record High Percent
      • Volatility Indices
    • Market Analysis
      • Dow Theory
      • Sector Rotation Analysis
      • Intermarket Analysis
      • The DecisionPoint Chart Gallery
      • DecisionPoint Rydex Asset Analysis
      • Wyckoff Analysis Articles
        • Wyckoff Market Analysis
        • Wyckoff Stock Analysis
        • The Wyckoff Method: A Tutorial
      • Elliott Wave Analysis Articles
        • Introduction to Elliott Wave Theory
        • Identifying Elliott Wave Patterns
        • Guidelines for Applying Elliott Wave Theory
    • Trading Strategies & Models
      • DecisionPoint Trend Model
      • Trading Strategies
        • Bollinger Band Squeeze
        • CCI Correction
        • CVR3 VIX Market Timing
        • Faber's Sector Rotation Trading Strategy
        • Gap Trading Strategies
        • Harmonic Patterns
        • Hindenburg Omen
        • Ichimoku Cloud Trading Strategies
        • The 'Last' Stochastic Technique
        • MACD Zero-Line Crosses With Swing Points
        • Moving Average Trading Strategies
          • Finding Support and Resistance in Moving Averages
          • Guppy Multiple Moving Average: An MA Ribbon Designed to Tip the Market’s Hand
          • How To Trade Price-to-Moving Average Crossovers
          • Trading the Bounce: Finding Support and Resistance in Moving Averages
          • Trading the Death Cross
          • Trading Using the Golden Cross
          • Using the 5-8-13 EMA Crossover for Short-Term Trades
        • Moving Momentum
        • Narrow Range Day NR7
        • Percent Above 50-day SMA
        • Percent B Money Flow
        • The Pre-Holiday Effect
        • RSI(2)
        • Six-Month Cycle MACD
        • Slope Performance Trend
        • Stochastic Pop and Drop
        • Swing Charting
        • Trend Quantification and Asset Allocation
    • Index & Market Indicator Catalog
      • Advance-Decline Indicators
      • Cboe Indices and Indicators
      • CME Futures and Spot Prices
      • DecisionPoint Sentiment Indicators
      • Dow Jones Breadth Indicators
      • Dow Jones Global Indices
      • Dow Jones Select Indices
      • Dow Jones Titans Indices
      • Dow Jones US Indices
      • Economic Indicators
      • ICE Futures and Spot Prices
      • Intellidex Indices
      • MSCI Indices
      • New 52-week Highs and Lows for Exchanges
      • NYSE Arca Equity Indices
      • NYSE Equity Indices
      • Philadelphia Indices
      • S&P 500 Sector and Industry Groups
      • S&P GSCI Indices
      • StockCharts AD Percent
      • StockCharts AD Volume Percent
      • StockCharts Bullish Percent Index
      • StockCharts High-Low Index
      • StockCharts High-Low Percent
      • StockCharts Percent Above Moving Average
      • StockCharts Pseudo Symbols
      • StockCharts Record High Percent
      • StockCharts Theoretical Indices
      • US Treasury Yields
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On this page
  • Traditional Sentiment Analysis
  • The Rydex Asset Ratio
  • Rydex Asset Ratio Calculations
  • Using the Rydex Asset Ratio
  • Shorter-Term Analysis
  • Longer-Term Analysis
  • The Bottom Line

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  1. Table of Contents
  2. Market Analysis

DecisionPoint Rydex Asset Analysis

Traditional Sentiment Analysis

Sentiment has traditionally been measured by taking polls of selected groups of investors, advisors, investing professionals, etc. There have been and still are problems associated with this methodology. Firstly, the polls are normally taken over a period of several days, during which time market movement and investor outlook can change radically. In addition, the responses are strictly subjective, reflecting the emotional status of the person being polled, not necessarily said person's investment position.

The idea behind using sentiment indicators is that we are trying to determine when investors have reached a saturation point of bullishness or bearishness. For example, tops are formed when everybody who is going to buy has bought, while bottoms occur after there is no one left to sell. Using subjective measures like sentiment polls makes it difficult to determine exactly when these extremes have been reached; polls have never been particularly good for bottom or top picking. It is important to maintain an awareness of sentiment, but be reluctant to make it one of your primary decision-making tools.

The Rydex Asset Ratio

The Rydex Asset Ratio makes it possible for us to analyze sentiment based upon what investors are actually doing with real money. We do this by calculating a daily bear/bull asset ratio and monitoring the relationship between assets in the two types of funds. When the Rydex Asset Ratio was invented by Steve Todd (Todd Market Forecast) many years ago, it was based on two very small mutual funds – URSA (bear) and NOVA (bull). Because of the small amount of cash involved (and, presumably, the small number of people using the funds), it was subject to extreme movement in either direction, but over the years Rydex added dozens of new funds. Where initially total assets in the two Rydex funds might have been a few hundred million dollars, today Rydex has over 40 funds with billions of dollars in assets. This is a more stable platform from which to derive indicators.

Note: All Rydex mutual funds were renamed after the Rydex company was purchased by Guggenheim Investments, but we continue to use the legacy β€œRydex” name for the ratios.

Rydex Asset Ratio Calculations

Now let's discuss specific components of the ratio calculations.

Bull Funds: All index funds that are long the stock market.

Sector Funds: All sector funds that are long the stock market. Precious Metals, Government Bond, Bond, Commodities, Strong Dollar and Weak Dollar mutual funds are not included.

Bear Funds: All index funds that are short the stock market.

Money Market: Since money market funds are not invested in bull funds, we consider them to be a mildly bearish vote.

Rydex Asset Ratio Formula:

(Bear Fund Assets + Money Market) / (Bull Fund + Sector Fund Assets)

Below is a chart of the asset ratio with its components. Sometimes a careful look at the component charts can clarify movements of the asset ratio.

Using the Rydex Asset Ratio

The Rydex Asset Ratio can be used to gauge sentiment in shorter-term and longer-term timeframes. In our discussions, please note that the ratio charts have an inverted display to make interpretation of the charts more intuitive. By default, higher values indicate bearish sentiment and lower values indicate bullish sentiment. By inverting the chart, we give overbought and oversold readings the same orientation as on the price chart.

Shorter-Term Analysis

For shorter-term timeframes, it is best to view the Rydex Asset Ratio within the context of some kind of overlay. We use a 20-EMA with Bollinger Bands. On the chart below, note that short-term excesses of bullishness or bearishness are identified when the ratio tops or bottoms near the limits of the Bollinger Bands.

You will also notice that, when the market is trending, the ratio tends to stay on one side or the other of the 20-EMA. During these periods, the 20-EMA becomes support or resistance, enforcing more narrow limits of what is considered overbought or oversold.

Contact with the bands is not always a sign that the move has reached a short-term limit. When the ratio makes a sharp 20-EMA crossover, it signals a possible shift in short-term sentiment. If it subsequently begins β€œpushing” the bands in the direction of the crossover, it confirms the sentiment shift. We will need to wait for ratio topping or bottoming action before speculating that sentiment has reached a short-term saturation point.

Longer-Term Analysis

While Bollinger Bands help define short-term excesses, longer-term excesses are gauged by looking at the trading range of the ratio over a period of several months or years.

Instead of looking at the ratio levels relative to Bollinger Bands, we compare them to ratio levels during past market tops and bottoms. In this way, ratio levels during past market extremes serve as benchmarks for future market tops and bottoms.

Note that absolute ratio levels can be informative if there are historical references for those same levels, but market direction and context also need to be considered in your analysis.

The Bottom Line

The Rydex Asset Ratio is a useful tool in evaluating market sentiment, as it is based on where people are putting their money, not just opinions. However, while we use the ratio to infer broad market sentiment, we must remember that Rydex assets represent only a small fraction of assets in the total stock market.

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Last updated 11 months ago

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