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  • Table of Contents
    • Overview
      • Why Analyze Securities?
      • Technical Analysis
      • Fundamental Analysis
      • Random Walk vs. Non-Random Walk
      • Asset Allocation and Diversification
      • John Murphy's 10 Laws of Technical Trading
      • John Murphy's "Charting Made Easy" eBook
      • Technical Analysis 101
        • TA 101 – Part 1
        • TA 101 – Part 2
        • TA 101 – Part 3
        • TA 101 – Part 4
        • TA 101 – Part 5
        • TA 101 – Part 6
        • TA 101 – Part 7
        • TA 101 – Part 8
        • TA 101 – Part 9
        • TA 101 – Part 10
        • TA 101 – Part 11
        • TA 101 – Part 12
        • TA 101 – Part 13
        • TA 101 – Part 14
        • TA 101 – Part 15
        • TA 101 – Part 16
        • TA 101 – Part 17
      • Irrational Exuberance
      • Cognitive Biases
      • Arthur Hill on Goals, Style and Strategy
      • Arthur Hill on Moving Average Crossovers
      • Multicollinearity
      • "The Trader's Journal" by Gatis Roze
        • Stage 1: Money Management
        • Stage 2: Business of Investing
        • Stage 3: The Investor Self
        • Stage 4: Market Analysis
        • Stage 5: Routines
        • Stage 6: Stalking Your Trade
        • Stage 7: Buying
        • Stage 8: Monitoring Your Investments
        • Stage 9: Selling
        • Stage 10: Re-Examine, Refine, Re-Enhance
        • Additional Reading
      • Bob Farrell's 10 Rules
      • Richard Rhodes' Trading Rules
      • Donchian Trading Guidelines
      • Why and How To Use Correlation
    • Chart Analysis
      • What Are Charts?
      • Support & Resistance
      • Trend Lines
      • Gaps and Gap Analysis
      • Introduction to Chart Patterns
      • Chart Patterns
        • Broadening Top or Megaphone Top
        • Double Top Reversal
        • Double Bottom Reversal
        • Head and Shoulders Top
        • Head and Shoulders Bottom
        • Falling Wedge
        • Rising Wedge
        • Rounding Bottom
        • Triple Top Reversal
        • Triple Bottom Reversal
        • Bump and Run Reversal
        • Flag, Pennant
        • Symmetrical Triangle
        • Ascending Triangle
        • Descending Triangle
        • Rectangle
        • Price Channel
        • Measured Move—Bullish
        • Measured Move—Bearish
        • Cup With Handle
      • Chart Types
        • Arms CandleVolume
        • CandleVolume
        • Elder Impulse System
        • EquiVolume
        • Heikin-Ashi Candlesticks
        • Kagi Charts
        • Renko Charts
        • Three Line Break Charts
        • MarketCarpets
        • Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG Charts)
        • Seasonality Charts
        • Yield Curve
      • Candlestick Charts
        • Introduction to Candlesticks
        • Candlesticks and Traditional Chart Analysis
        • Candlesticks and Support
        • Candlesticks and Resistance
        • Candlestick Bullish Reversal Patterns
        • Candlestick Bearish Reversal Patterns
        • Candlestick Pattern Dictionary
      • Point and Figure Charts
        • Point and Figure Basics
          • Introduction to Point & Figure Charts
          • Point & Figure Scaling and Timeframes
          • P&F Trend Lines
        • Classic Patterns
          • P&F Bullish Breakouts
          • P&F Bearish Breakdowns
          • P&F Signal Reversed
          • P&F Catapults
          • P&F Triangles
          • P&F Bull & Bear Traps
        • P&F Price Objectives
          • P&F Price Objectives: Breakout and Reversal Method
          • P&F Price Objectives: Horizontal Counts
          • P&F Price Objectives: Vertical Counts
        • Point & Figure Indicators
        • P&F Scans and Alerts
          • P&F Pattern Alerts
      • Chart Annotation Tools
        • Andrews' Pitchfork
        • Stock Market Cycles
        • Fibonacci Retracements
        • Fibonacci Arcs
        • Fibonacci Fans
        • Fibonacci Time Zones
        • Quadrant Lines
        • Raff Regression Channel
        • Speed Resistance Lines
    • Technical Indicators & Overlays
      • Introduction to Technical Indicators and Oscillators
      • Technical Indicators
        • Accumulation/Distribution Line
        • Alligator Indicator
        • Aroon
        • Aroon Oscillator
        • ATR Bands
        • ATR Trailing Stops
        • Average Directional Index (ADX)
        • Average True Range (ATR) and Average True Range Percent (ATRP)
        • Balance of Power (BOP)
        • Bollinger BandWidth
        • %B Indicator
        • Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)
        • Chaikin Oscillator
        • Chande Trend Meter (CTM)
        • CMB Composite Index
        • Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
        • ConnorsRSI
        • Coppock Curve
        • Correlation Coefficient
        • DecisionPoint Price Momentum Oscillator (PMO)
        • Detrended Price Oscillator (DPO)
        • Distance From Highs
        • Distance From Lows
        • Distance To Highs
        • Distance To Lows
        • Distance From Moving Average
        • Ease of Movement (EMV)
        • Force Index
        • Gopalakrishnan Range Index
        • High Low Bands
        • High Minus Low
        • Highest High Value
        • Linear Regression R2
        • Lowest Low Value
        • Mass Index
        • MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) Oscillator
        • MACD-Histogram
        • MACD-V
        • MACD-V Histogram
        • Median Price
        • Money Flow Index (MFI)
        • Negative Volume Index (NVI)
        • On Balance Volume (OBV)
        • Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO)
        • Percentage Volume Oscillator (PVO)
        • Performance Spread
        • Price Relative/Relative Strength
        • Pring's Know Sure Thing (KST)
        • Pring's Special K
        • Rate of Change (ROC)
        • Relative Strength Index (RSI)
        • Relative Volume (RVOL)
        • RRG Relative Strength
        • StockCharts Technical Rank
        • Slope
        • Standard Deviation (Volatility)
        • Stochastic Oscillator (Fast, Slow, and Full)
        • StochRSI
        • Traffic Light
        • TRIX
        • True Range
        • True Strength Index
        • TTM Squeeze
        • Typical Price
        • Ulcer Index
        • Ultimate Oscillator
        • Vortex Indicator
        • Weighted Close
        • Williams %R
      • Technical Overlays
        • Anchored VWAP
        • Bollinger Bands
        • Chandelier Exit
        • Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA)
        • Hull Moving Average (HMA)
        • Ichimoku Cloud
        • Kaufman's Adaptive Moving Average (KAMA)
        • Keltner Channels
        • Linear Regression Forecast
        • Linear Regression Intercept
        • Moving Averages—Simple and Exponential
        • Moving Average Ribbon
        • Moving Average Envelopes
        • Parabolic SAR
        • Pivot Points
        • Price Channels
        • Triple Exponential Moving Average (TEMA)
        • Volume-by-Price
        • Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
        • ZigZag
    • Market Indicators
      • Introduction to Market Indicators
        • Market Indicator Dictionary
      • Advance-Decline Line
      • Advance-Decline Percent
      • Advance-Decline Volume Line
      • Advance-Decline Volume Percent
      • Arms Index (TRIN)
      • Bullish Percent Index (BPI)
      • DecisionPoint Intermediate-Term Breadth Momentum Oscillator (ITBM)
      • DecisionPoint Intermediate-Term Volume Momentum Oscillator (ITVM)
      • DecisionPoint Swenlin Trading Oscillator (STO)
      • High-Low Index
      • High-Low Percent
      • McClellan Oscillator
      • McClellan Summation Index
      • Net New 52-Week Highs
      • Percent Above Moving Average
      • Pring's Bottom Fisher
      • Pring's Diffusion Indicators
      • Pring's Inflation and Deflation Indexes
      • Pring's Net New High Indicators
      • Put/Call Ratio
      • Record High Percent
      • Volatility Indices
    • Market Analysis
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      • Sector Rotation Analysis
      • Intermarket Analysis
      • The DecisionPoint Chart Gallery
      • DecisionPoint Rydex Asset Analysis
      • Wyckoff Analysis Articles
        • Wyckoff Market Analysis
        • Wyckoff Stock Analysis
        • The Wyckoff Method: A Tutorial
      • Elliott Wave Analysis Articles
        • Introduction to Elliott Wave Theory
        • Identifying Elliott Wave Patterns
        • Guidelines for Applying Elliott Wave Theory
    • Trading Strategies & Models
      • DecisionPoint Trend Model
      • Trading Strategies
        • Bollinger Band Squeeze
        • CCI Correction
        • CVR3 VIX Market Timing
        • Faber's Sector Rotation Trading Strategy
        • Gap Trading Strategies
        • Harmonic Patterns
        • Hindenburg Omen
        • Ichimoku Cloud Trading Strategies
        • The 'Last' Stochastic Technique
        • MACD Zero-Line Crosses With Swing Points
        • Moving Average Trading Strategies
          • Finding Support and Resistance in Moving Averages
          • Guppy Multiple Moving Average: An MA Ribbon Designed to Tip the Market’s Hand
          • How To Trade Price-to-Moving Average Crossovers
          • Trading the Bounce: Finding Support and Resistance in Moving Averages
          • Trading the Death Cross
          • Trading Using the Golden Cross
          • Using the 5-8-13 EMA Crossover for Short-Term Trades
        • Moving Momentum
        • Narrow Range Day NR7
        • Percent Above 50-day SMA
        • Percent B Money Flow
        • The Pre-Holiday Effect
        • RSI(2)
        • Six-Month Cycle MACD
        • Slope Performance Trend
        • Stochastic Pop and Drop
        • Swing Charting
        • Trend Quantification and Asset Allocation
    • Index & Market Indicator Catalog
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      • NYSE Arca Equity Indices
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      • S&P 500 Sector and Industry Groups
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      • StockCharts AD Percent
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      • StockCharts Pseudo Symbols
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      • US Treasury Yields
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  1. Table of Contents
  2. Overview
  3. Technical Analysis 101

TA 101 – Part 14

PreviousTA 101 – Part 13NextTA 101 – Part 15

Last updated 10 months ago

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This is the fourteenth part of a series of articles about technical analysis from a new course we're developing. If you are new to charting, these articles will give you the “big picture” behind the charts on our site. If you are an “old hand,” these articles will help ensure you haven't “strayed too far” from the basics. Enjoy!

Tip. See the entire series

Fibonacci Lines

How high is “too high?” How low is “too low?” Think back to any time that you've owned a stock and think about when you started to get worried about its performance. At what point did “your gut” start to tell you that you needed to sell? Chances are your gut started talking to you after the stock had moved up (or down) by 38.2%.

Wow, that's a really specific number - “38.2”! It seems kind of arbitrary, also. There's no way that could be correct, right? I mean, without knowing anything about the stock you were trading, or the amount of money involved, or the overall market conditions, or anything else - how can we stand here and tell you that you got nervous right at 38.2%?

The reason is because 38.2 appears to be programmed into the human psyche (as well as many other parts of nature). It's one of a set of numbers called “Fibonacci Percentages.” They are derived from the “Fibonacci Sequence” which is a list of numbers where each number equals the sum of the previous two, i.e.,

1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610 etc.

The branching in trees, the arrangement of leaves on a stem, the flowering of artichokes, an uncurling fern and the arrangement of a pine cone - all these things exhibit Fibonacci characteristics. In addition, if you take any large Fibonacci number and divide it by the previous number, you'll get something very close to 1.6180339887 (the larger the number, the closer you'll get). Now, 1.6180 has been known for centuries as “The Golden Ratio,” mostly, because we humans tend to prefer things - art, sculpture, architecture, etc. - that have proportions that equal the golden ratio.

Which of these picture looks the most natural to you? The middle one has golden ratio proportions.

Getting back to stock charting, R.N. Elliott made the first well-known connection between price movements and the golden ratio. He noted that many reversals occurred around 61.8% or its complement 38.2% (i.e., 100 - 61.8). Combined with 50% and 100%, they make up the standard set of Fibonacci Percentages.

Regardless of how the numbers were arrived at, chart analysts have observed that prices often will reverse after moving up (or down) by one of those percentages. Basically, those percentages are where something tells many people that it is time to take action - and thus prices reverse. Strange but true. Check it out:

The Fibonacci Lines on this chart were created based on the move from Feb. 9th to May 30th - so just focus on the shaded blue area of the chart. Like a weatherman, the lines “forecast” that support for IBM would occur around 88.79 essentially because lots of people would probably feel that IBM had “fallen enough” and would start buying it again. That is precisely what happened at the end of June (red circle).

Unfortunately, many people have gone on to claim that Fibonacci lines (and their variants) have almost “magical powers” to predict price movements. Like most technical analysis tools, we think Fibonacci Lines are useful forecasting tools - but not magical.

You can add Fibonacci Lines to your charts using our ChartNotes annotation tool. To get started, simply click on the “Annotation” link below any SharpCharts.

If you hold down “CTRL” while drawing Fibonacci lines, we'll add the 23.6% and 161.8% lines as well.

In part 15, we'll cover Price Gaps.

Technical Analysis 101